Sell-side vendor due diligence
8-figure exit to mid-market PE
Marketplace portfolio
Four platforms, 60 interviews, 1m+ rows and a network-effect thesis taken personally to six bidders in five weeks.
For deal teams & investors
Commercial and vendor diligence, investment cases and capital raises - for the deals you cannot settle just by checking management’s numbers.
The buying moment
A deal process can make continuing feel safer than stopping. Lion focuses the work on the two or three questions capable of changing conviction, price or structure.
A buyer is outside its usual sector and needs a view that can survive investment-committee scrutiny.
A seller has a strong business but a commercial story the buyer will pull apart.
Historic benchmarks are useless because the market, technology or regulation is moving.
Management needs to raise without overstating the market - or hiding the defensive case.
What we test
The output
A clear verdict, not a menu: proceed or pass; price and conditions; mitigations; value-creation logic; and the evidence still needed before commitment.
Size, structure and true addressability of the market
Sources and durability of growth
Customer behaviour and competitive response
Unit economics and capital requirements
Buyer-specific fit, synergy and value
Assumptions most likely to impair the case
The price or conditions at which the answer changes
Selected transaction work
Sell-side vendor due diligence
Four platforms, 60 interviews, 1m+ rows and a network-effect thesis taken personally to six bidders in five weeks.
Entry screen
A flat £880m category resegmented into double-digit needs-based niches, with a ranked entry plan.
Investment case
Risk told straight, two weak sites named and a 15-shop defensive floor that survived lender scrutiny.
Investment thesis, tested
A bullish fleet thesis rebuilt from tonne-miles and the order book - and reversed. The desk exited rather than doubled down; the disposal returned nine figures.
Investment case / vendor due diligence
An operating record blurred by successive shocks, rebuilt quarter by quarter to show the investable business underneath; the raise was supported on that evidence. The company has since listed at a c.$60m valuation, and now trades at a nine-figure market cap.
Read the case↗︎