Case studies
Each of these began with a question the published numbers could not answer - and ended in a decision someone had to stand behind.
12 decisions
SectorFTSE 100 multinational · Global growth strategy · Eight weeks
A growth ambition depended on newly affluent consumers in cities that country-level data could not see.
Corporate strategy
C-suite
Consumer & retail
Mid-market PE sponsor · Sell-side vendor due diligence · UK & US · Five weeks
Four digital marketplaces, a live process and a US value pool with little public evidence.
Transaction
PE / investor
Online marketplaces
Founder-led group · Investment case / vendor due diligence · MENA
At surface level: an operating record blurred by shocks, and founders seeking capital to step-change the business.
Transaction
PE / investor
Premium food retail
Listed European operator · Market entry · Large European market
A market said to be growing 20% a year, a four-week window - and published numbers inflated by player winnings.
Corporate strategy
C-suite
Online gambling
International card scheme · Market modelling · 30 markets
Thirty national markets each had a case for more spend - and projections that could not all be true at once.
Corporate strategy
C-suite
Payments
Investor buy-side · Entry screen · UK
A flat-looking category concealed double-digit needs-based niches and ten potential targets.
Transaction
PE / investor
Consumer health
Shipping asset & freight-derivative traders · Global · Six weeks
A major fleet commitment rested on the view that product-tanker rates would tighten.
Corporate strategy
PE / investor
Derivatives trading
Founder-led chain · Growth debt · UK · Recession
A nine-shop independent asked lenders for £3.2m to more than double its estate while GDP was falling.
Transaction
PE / investor
Retail betting
Foster + Partners consortium · National infrastructure · UK / global
An Airports Commission deadline, a c.£24bn proposal and an argument required to survive economists, lobbyists and the front pages.
Capital commitment
Sovereign / public
Aviation & infrastructure
State-linked institution · Investment case · Gulf
Fifty hectares of city-centre land, committed once and lived with for decades.
Capital commitment
Sovereign / public
Sports & real estate
Government ministry & industry chamber · Middle East
A c.$1.5bn industry growing at 0.5%, 700 closures in two years and a tariff wall about to fall.
Capital commitment
Sovereign / public
National industry
Master developer · Emerging-market capital · 20km² district
Government-backed infrastructure met a commodity shock, double-digit rates and an oversupplied housing market.
Capital commitment
Sovereign / public
Urban development
The record in brief. Corporate strategy: A city-by-city growth strategy for a FTSE 100 consumer goods company; Online gambling market entry: a one-shot window, and a no-go decision; A bullish product-tanker thesis, tested against the physical market - and reversed; Thirty payment markets, one consistent forecast - c.€1.7tn of headroom. Transactions: Vendor due diligence on four digital marketplaces, in five weeks; A founder-led grocer’s capital raise, proven under three years of shocks - then an IPO; A market entry and acquisition screen in UK consumer health; Growth debt for a retail betting chain, raised at the bottom of the credit cycle. Capital commitments: The economic case for a UK hub airport; A c.US$1bn Gulf stadium district, resized for yield; A protected national industry turned toward export before free trade arrived; A 20km² district masterplan, re-sequenced by demand. Essays sit separately in Thinking.
Engagements were won and led by Elliot Ronald and delivered by teams under his direction at Lion Strategy or its predecessor firm, Hambalt. Client confidentiality is absolute; cases are anonymised except where the work is already on the public record.