Shipping asset & freight-derivative traders · Global · Six weeks
A bullish tanker thesis, tested against the physical market - and reversed.
A major fleet commitment rested on the view that product-tanker rates would tighten.
c.720m tonnes modelled
Supply c.10% p.a.
Demand c.8% p.a.
Corporate strategy
PE / investor
Derivatives trading
The challenge
A trading desk held exposure through physical assets and forward freight agreements. Before buying or time-chartering more ships, it wanted its bullish thesis tested against fundamentals rather than broker sentiment.
The work
Demand was rebuilt as tonne-miles across every major exporter-importer pair, using real sea distances. Supply was forecast by tanker class from the confirmed order book, with fleet productivity modelled explicitly. The two sides met in one route-level charter-rate forecast.
The result
The fundamentals contradicted the thesis: supply growth outpaced tonne-mile demand. The finding was given straight and the client exited rather than doubled down; the disposal later returned nine figures.
Engagements were won and led by Elliot Ronald and delivered by teams under his direction at Lion Strategy or its predecessor firm, Hambalt. Client confidentiality is absolute; cases are anonymised except where the work is already on the public record.